How do voters react to new political actors?
Recent research suggests that radical right party success can provoke electoral backlash. We argue that backlash is not limited to the radical right, but can arise when new actors challenge the political establishment. With radical policy positions and behaviour, Green parties were early disruptors of post-war European party systems. Using first-difference and difference-in-differences designs with voting records from Germany, we show that Green party success provoked a conservative backlash. After the Greens entered state parliaments, conservative parties gained support. Using additional evidence from early election surveys, we find that Green party success reinforces feelings of animosity among conservatives, mainly driven by disapproval of the Greens’ behaviour. These results highlight a broader pattern of backlash against new disruptive political actors. Our findings are particularly relevant in times of polarization and party system fragmentation across established democracies.
António Valentim is an Assistant Professor in European Politics and Policy in the ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳ European Institute. António studies comparative and environmental politics, focusing on when voters and politicians act to prevent climate change. His research builds on insights from social psychology and comparative politics, and apply econometric tools, survey experiments and interviews. In addition to these questions, António is also interested in gender and representation. Some of his work has been published at Nature Climate Change. Prior to the ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳, António was a postdoctoral researcher at Yale University and obtained his PhD in political science from the DYNAMICS graduate school, jointly organised by Humboldt University Berlin and the Hertie school.