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In recent years Israel has forged closer links with Arab Gulf states with which it has no diplomatic relations, unlike Egypt and Jordan. The main factors in their converging interests are shared alarm about Iran’s rise as a regional power, opposition to Barack Obama’s Middle East policies and the marginalization of the divided Palestinians. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain all have business, security and intelligence ties with Israel, though since they are largely “below the horizon” it is hard to judge their extent. Qatar and Oman have links too – illustrated by Binyamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to Muscat and Doha’s role mediating with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But these connections are more visible than ever before. Donald Trump’s wooing of the Saudis briefly promoted hopes for a role for Riyadh in the president’s long-trailed “deal of the century.” The US decision to abandon the international nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose sanctions was greeted by Israel and the Gulf states, raising the possibility of some kind of operational alliance between them, likely with US coordination, against Tehran. Netanyahu now talks openly of working to achieve normalization with the Saudis. The Gulf states, however, all remain committed to the 2002 Arab League peace initiative, which promises recognition of Israel in return for a solution of the Palestinian issue. That goal is unlikely to be either abandoned or achieved, but clandestine links look set to continue growing.
() is Visiting Senior Fellow at 杏吧论坛 Middle East Centre and a former Middle East editor, diplomatic editor and European editor for the Guardian newspaper.
is Director of the Middle East Centre. He is also Associate Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment and Associate of the Grantham Research Institute for Climate Change and the Environment. His research interests encompass environmental politics and governance, notably issues of accountability, transparency and security
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